Locksmith’s Pick Six: Week 3
The locksmith is slowly regaining his mojo.
But let’s be honest: who saw the Sun Belt Conference surprise Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Nebraska on the same day? And who saw that combined with Kansas winning a conference game on the road to open 2-0 for the first time since 2011?
It’s a reminder that in college football, crazy things happen – and you should act accordingly when betting.
Moving on to week 3:
AUBURN on Penn State, taking 3
Penn State faced tougher preparation for this, but it’s still James Franklin coaching in a big spot. How has it been for the past two plus years? The Tigers are looking for revenge for last year and their powerful running game, with murderous Tank Bigsby in the lead, can play ball control and shorten the game. Hard to pass up an SEC team that score points at home.
TEXAS A&M on Miami, giving 5 1/2
Locksmith is probably in the minority here, but that’s the thinking: The Aggies aren’t as bad as people seem to think and Miami isn’t as good as those same people think. Not yet anyway. Hurricanes must produce this winning signature before being declared back. I love Tyler van Dyke as a QB, but there’s a general philosophy at play here: never bet an ACC team on the road against an SEC team unless it’s Clemson. We stick to that. Maybe a switch from Max Johnson to QB revives the Aggies’ offense.
Texas Tech over NC State, taking 10
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It goes against the locksmith’s preseason who thinks the Wolfpack can threaten Clemson for ACC supremacy. But what would that line be if East Carolina made that extra point instead of missing it in NC State’s opener? A pick’em maybe? Wolfpack is brimming with talent but needs to see that translate into an impressive game. The Red Raiders showed courage in a double overtime win over Houston last week and dual threat QB Donovan Smith could give the Wolfpack defense some tweaks. That seems like a big number for a team that has played well against a team that has yet to live up to expectations,
Kansas on HOUSTON, taking 9
Alright, the locksmith is buying some stock in the Jayhawks now. Maybe they’re not as terrible as we’re used to them. The combination of Lance Leipold being a good coach and the transfer portal seems to have made the difference, with the Jayhawks rallying from three different 14-point deficits to win in West Virginia. Kansas is averaging 55 points per game, Houston’s defense is shoddy, and the Cougars don’t have much running game. And how motivated are the Cougars after that home loss to Texas Tech wiped out any potential playoff hopes? It looks like a close, high-scoring game. Rock chalk.
Byu on OREGON, taking 3 1/2
Couldn’t give up BYU after the Cougars covered for the locksmith the first two weeks of the season. Win this one and BYU’s only real remaining obstacle to a playoff berth is Arkansas. A playoff caliber team wins this game. The uncertain status of injured WR stars Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua is concerning, but BYU has become a physical defense-focused team that doesn’t have to score in bunches to win. Oregon’s big-game record hasn’t been the best lately. Nor the great game record of QB Bo Nix, who never again benefits from the doubt after that embarrassing performance in Georgia.
Oklahoma over NEBRASKA, giving 11 1/2
Unless Nebraska brings in 11 top defensive players in addition to firing Scott Frost, there’s a chance the Cornhuskers defense will be crushed here by Dillon Gabriel & Co. Nebraska has a powerful offense, but it can’t. keep pace with his poor defense. is. Have a feeling the Sooners will continue to improve under Brent Venables as the season progresses. They are still in a process of transition. But 55-24 is a possibility here.
Last week vs spread: 3-3
Season to date vs spread: 5-7
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